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The US job market showed signs of recovery with a payroll increase of 227,000 last month, rebounding from disruptions caused by storms and strikes. This follows a revised gain of 36,000 in October, with the three-month average now at 173,000, easing concerns about a slowdown in labor demand.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is leaning toward supporting a rate cut in December, citing expectations for inflation to trend down to 2%. However, he expressed concerns over recent inflation data, which showed an uptick, indicating that the central bank's goal remains challenging. Waller emphasized the importance of upcoming employment and inflation reports in shaping his final decision.
Two prominent Senate Republicans, Bill Cassidy and Susan Collins, criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics for its recent significant revisions to employment data, labeling the agency's failure to provide reliable initial figures as "unacceptable." The senators, poised to take on key oversight roles next year, expressed their concerns in a letter to the BLS.
US producer prices rose 0.2% in October, following a revised 0.1% increase in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year-over-year, the producer price index increased by 2.4%, driven by gains in portfolio management and other categories impacting the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
US core inflation remained steady in October, with the core consumer price index rising 0.3% for the third consecutive month. This increase reflects a 3.3% rise compared to the same period last year, highlighting ongoing challenges for Federal Reserve officials in managing price pressures.
Trump's proposed universal tariffs could lead to significant price increases on a range of consumer goods, with clothing prices expected to rise by 12.5% to 20.6% and toys by 36.3% to 55.8%. This would result in a $46 billion decrease in purchasing power, disproportionately affecting low-income households. Critics argue that these tariffs would act as a tax on American families without creating new jobs in the affected industries.
US hiring grew by just 12,000 in October, marking the slowest increase since 2020, impacted by severe hurricanes and a significant strike. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while hourly earnings showed resilience, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The key Fed inflation rate rose to 2.1% in September, aligning with expectations, as the personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 0.2% monthly increase. While services prices increased by 0.3%, goods prices fell by 0.1%, indicating ongoing deflation in that category. Personal income and consumer spending also saw gains, with the latter rising 0.5%, suggesting resilience in the economy despite inflation concerns.
Nevada's unemployment rate has surged to a three-year high of 5.6% in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases. This rate is the second highest in the nation, trailing only Washington DC, and significantly exceeds the national average of 4.1%. The rising unemployment poses a potential challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign in this critical battleground state.
UBS predicts a 13% gain for the S&P 500 in 2025, driven by a "no landing" scenario for the US economy, where growth and a strong job market persist alongside manageable inflation. The firm anticipates the index reaching 6,600, supported by potential Fed interest rate cuts and robust economic indicators. Despite expected election-related volatility, positive fundamentals are expected to prevail.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Companies
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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